It is being said that the news from Maldives is not good. How true is this? India’s footprints in Maldives are deep-rooted, both historically and in contemporary relations.
Change may occur to some extent due to the change in leadership in Maldives. However, it is unlikely to alter the fundamentals. From Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s years till today, our relations, despite a few hiccups, have been close and friendly. So, let’s not judge the situation in a rush.
Maldives has an area of 90,000 sq km that encompasses 99.6 per cent of the sea.
The remaining land is distributed over more than 1,200 islands. Experts predict that 80 per cent of the Maldives will cease to exist by 2050 due to ‘Global Boiling’. India is the closest neighbour at a distance of 70 nautical miles. Who else could come to assist Maldives in an hour of need? Ibn Khaldun, a Tunisian philosopher has said that geography is destiny, and it is true in the case of our two countries. The countries are entwined, not only through geography but also history.
Maldives with 98 per cent literacy is a nation of contradictions and these pose challenges to democratic governance. These include a constitution that bars anyone non-Sunni to become a Maldivian citizen; a nascent civil society; a tradition of patronage, a problem of increasing drug abuse, a distorted labour market, growing inequality, and an economy dependent on external factors. Also concerning is the growing trend of religious extremism.
India has always been a factor in Maldives, in fact, it has been the only constant. Earlier, there was only Buddhism in Maldives which was replaced in the 12th century by Islam. Even during the British protectorate years (1887-1965), Maldives depended on India for essentials as well as communication with the outside world. The State Bank of India was the major financer that helped build the edifice of the country’s tourist economy.
Even today, it is the largest bank in the island country. Whether it was the attempted coup in 1988 or subsequent assistance through decades, India provided a helping hand in every possible way, but stayed clear of internal developments. The dependence of Maldives on India and its unconditional support, has helped it become what it is today — a country with the highest per capita in south Asia.
Maldives is well aware of the enormous scale of cooperation with India. The defence cooperation is less about India’s gifting of helicopters and more about capacity building through joint exercises like the Ekuverin, Ekatha, surveillance assets, training of 1,400 MNDF trainers in recent years and disaster management. For decades, India has provided effective security assistance to Maldives in exchange of its hand of friendship and trust.
In three different crises in 1988 (the coup), 2004 (the tsunami), and 2014 (water shortage), Maldives witnessed that India was the first one to assist it. Both in the education and health sectors, Indian teachers and doctors play a critical role in the country including in the remote inhabited islands. Whether it is trade or tourism, India remains the biggest partner. With projects like greater Male connectivity, India is committed to take the infrastructure in Maldives to a different level altogether. Last but not the least, very few people know that India provides most essential items in bulk like rice, wheat flour, sugar, potatoes and onions, eggs, vegetables and even river sand and construction material as special dispensation.
For India, Maldives is a first line of defence against terrorism, piracy on the high seas, drug trafficking, narcotics, and other maritime crime. On the other hand, China’s entry is solely to advance its own interests. It has done so through debt financing, leading to debt traps and consequent hegemony of China. China’s policy of interference in the internal politics and support to conservative elements in Maldives has the potential of becoming a barrier to the development of a vibrant democracy in Maldives. It seems that the legacy of a controlled regime of the Gayoom years is being carried forward by elements that are aligning with China for their narrow gains. This may not be in the larger interest of the nation in the long run.
India is steadfast in its commitments towards Maldives and has always walked the extra mile towards building relations. Any impulsive steps to undo the carefully nurtured all encompassing partnership is likely to harm Maldives more than it would India. The 2012 ‘GMR out’ campaign cost Maldives a $ 270 million in payout to GMR. The Yameen years were marred by a pro-China policy that led Maldives into a debt crisis.
So, what’s next? The President designate Mohamed Muizzu is a Western educated engineer, who served as a minister as well as mayor of the capital Male. He contested in place of former President Yameen, who was in jail during the elections. Yameen has now been shifted to house arrest at the behest of the president designate. It is expected that Muizzu is unlikely to take drastic measures that alter relations with India. Elections are fought on emotions and promises. Once practical realities come to the fore in governance, he may realise the potential repercussions of undermining relations with India. Taking India for granted would have its price too. As they say, ‘those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it’.
