WTC 2025 Scenario: Sri Lanka can still pip Australia to enter final

Australia are all but through the World Test Championship (WTC) Final 2025 against South Africa in June later this year after winning the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) series 3-1 against India. There’s, however, still an outside chance for Sri Lanka to pip Australia for a place in the WTC Final.

How can Australia miss and Sri Lanka still make it to WTC Final

Australia currently are second on the WTC standing with 63.73 percent points – way ahead of fifth place Sri Lanka with 45.45 percent points. The two teams, however, have to play a two-Test series in Sri Lanka from January 29 which can still throw a twist.

For Sri Lanka, beating Australia 2-0 in the series won’t suffice if they were to make it to the WTC Final 2025. SL rely Australia to bowl at slow over rates as much as it leads to a deduction of eight points from Australia’s overall tally to have a chance at the WTC Final.

According to the ICC rules, one point is deducted from the team’s WTC points tally for each over short than the required over-rate.

If Australia fail to deliver eight overs less throughout their two-Test series then Sri Lanka will overtake them on the points tally and make it to their maiden WTC Final.

A team bowling eight overs less than required rate rarely happens but cricket is called a game of uncertainty for a reason. There’s also a case from 2023 Ashes when England were docked 19 points for slow over rates while Australia were penalized 10 points for the same.

The ICC, however, doesn’t impose slow over rate penalty if a team bowls out the opposition inside 80 overs in an innings.

The standard over rate by ICC is 15 overs per hour but the umpires determine the actual over rate by factoring in various interruptions such as injuries, drinks, ball change, etc.