A recent report from the International Data Corporation (IDC) reveals that Android smartphones are expected to grow 40% faster than iOS this year, with a 2.5% year-on-year growth. According to IDC’s ‘Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker,’ global smartphone shipments are forecast to increase by 2.3% year-over-year in 2025, reaching 1.26 billion units.
This 2.3% increase marks the second consecutive year of improvement following a 6.1% growth in 2024. While iOS is projected to decline by 1.9% in China due to ongoing challenges, it is expected to see a 1.8% global growth, driven by strong performance in the U.S.—Apple’s largest market—and rapid growth in emerging markets like India and Indonesia, with year-over-year increases of 18% and 9%, respectively.
### Key Factors Driving Growth
Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, attributes the growth to the ongoing rollout of Apple Intelligence and the recently launched mid-priced iPhone 16E, which are expected to fuel demand and maintain elevated average selling prices (ASPs) for Apple. Despite only accounting for 19% of shipments, Apple is projected to capture a 45% value share in 2025.
The U.S. smartphone market is forecast to grow by 3.3% in 2025, despite new 10% tariffs on goods from China, including smartphones. Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC, explains, “An aging installed base ready for renewal will positively impact shipments for the year. Although the new tariffs will slightly increase the average selling prices, most consumers in the U.S. purchase smartphones through installment plans, often combined with trade-ins, via the telecom channel.”
### Impact on Average Selling Prices
As a result, any increase in ASP in the U.S. is less likely to affect purchase decisions for most consumers. The global smartphone ASP is expected to rise slightly to $434 in 2025, thanks to the premiumization of high-end models, which continues to thrive despite the boost of low-end Androids this year.
### Conclusion
The forecasted growth in the smartphone market, particularly for Android devices, highlights the dynamic nature of the industry. As manufacturers continue to innovate and adapt to market demands, consumers can expect a diverse range of options, catering to various preferences and budgets.
Stay tuned for more updates on the latest trends in the smartphone market.
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