Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) appears set to build on its 2024 Lok Sabha success in the ongoing Bihar Assembly elections, according to multiple exit poll projections. After winning all five Lok Sabha seats it contested last year, the party has emerged as a key player within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and exit polls suggest it could secure between 10 and 19 seats in the 2025 Assembly race.
LJP (RV)’s Performance Snapshot: From Lok Sabha to Assembly
| Election | Seats Contested | Seats Won | Vote Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lok Sabha 2024 | 5 | 5 | ~6.5% |
| Assembly 2025 (Exit Polls) | 29 (1 rejected) | 10–19 (projected) | ~7%–9% (estimated) |
Paswan’s party contested 29 seats under the NDA seat-sharing formula, though one nomination was rejected, leaving 28 constituencies in play. The party’s performance is being closely watched as a barometer of its growing influence and Chirag Paswan’s emergence as a standalone political force.
Exit Poll Predictions for LJP (RV)
| Survey Agency | Projected Seats for LJP (RV) |
|---|---|
| Chanakya | 14–19 |
| PMARQ | 10–15 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 11–13 |
| Times Now | 10–12 |
| ABP-CVoter | 9–11 |
These projections suggest that LJP (RV) could outperform its 2020 Assembly tally, where it won just one seat out of 137 contested independently. This time, as part of the NDA, the party has benefited from strategic alliances and targeted campaigning.
NDA’s Overall Outlook in Bihar
| Alliance | Projected Seats | Majority Mark |
|---|---|---|
| NDA (BJP + JD(U) + LJP-RV) | 130–157 | 122 |
| Mahagathbandhan (RJD + Congress) | 73–98 | — |
| Others (JSP, Independents) | 3–10 | — |
The NDA is projected to return to power with a comfortable majority, and LJP (RV)’s contribution could be pivotal in securing that margin.
Chirag Paswan’s Campaign Strategy
Paswan’s campaign focused on:
- Youth-centric messaging
- Anti-corruption and governance reforms
- Legacy of Ram Vilas Paswan
- Targeting constituencies with high Dalit and youth voter density
His rallies drew significant crowds, and his social media engagement surged during the campaign period, positioning him as a dynamic face of the NDA.
Comparative Performance: LJP (RV) vs Other NDA Allies
| Party | Seats Contested | Projected Wins | Role in NDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| BJP | 101 | 75–85 | Lead partner |
| JD(U) | 101 | 55–65 | Key regional ally |
| LJP (RV) | 29 | 10–19 | Emerging force |
While BJP and JD(U) remain dominant, LJP (RV)’s projected gains signal a shift in Bihar’s political landscape, with Chirag Paswan carving out a distinct space.
Public Sentiment and Media Analysis
Exit polls and media commentary suggest that Paswan’s clean image and assertive leadership have resonated with voters. His decision to align with NDA, rather than contest independently as in 2020, is seen as a strategic masterstroke.
Political analysts note:
- “Chirag Paswan is no longer just Ram Vilas Paswan’s son—he’s a political brand in his own right.”
- “LJP (RV)’s performance could redefine coalition dynamics in Bihar.”
What’s Next for LJP (RV)?
If exit poll predictions hold, LJP (RV) could:
- Demand key ministerial portfolios in the new NDA government
- Strengthen its organizational base across Bihar
- Expand its footprint in upcoming state elections
Paswan has hinted that if NDA secures a strong mandate, his party will seek “the biggest post after the Chief Minister,” signaling ambitions beyond just seat counts.
Conclusion
Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) is poised to replicate its 2024 Lok Sabha success in the Bihar Assembly elections, with exit polls projecting a significant rise in seat share. As the NDA looks set for a comeback, LJP (RV)’s performance could be a defining factor in shaping Bihar’s next government and the future of regional politics.
Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available exit poll data and media reports. Final results may vary, and readers are advised to await official Election Commission announcements.
