Opinion | Netanyahu’s Nightmare After Gaza Ceasefire

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stalled for months a ceasefire agreement with Hamas in Gaza. It took intense pressure from the United States and families of Israeli hostages to compel him to sign the multi-phase peace deal brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt.

Why was Netanyahu fiercely opposed to a truce with Hamas? There are three principal reasons.

One, the 15-month war with Hamas hasn’t resulted in its total destruction. That was the non-negotiable objective of the war following the lethal attack on October 7, 2023. Despite Israel assassinating the top leadership of Hamas and killing more than 46,000 people in Gaza, including an estimated 30,000 women and children with many more bodies buried under the rubble, the militant group has reportedly recruited 20,000 new fighters to its ranks. Far from destroying Hamas, Israel has given it a second wind.

Two, the ceasefire deal, once all phases are completed, will re-legitimise Hamas, giving it a role in the reconstruction of Gaza. Infrastructure companies in the US, Europe, Middle East and India are eyeing one of the most lucrative rebuilding projects in decades. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, a real estate developer, plans to make Gaza a modern, high-tech enclave. That bodes ill for Israel’s long-term security.

Three, once lasting peace breaks out over the region, the issue that haunts Netanyahu and most Israelis is the likely establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state. He has gone on record to declare that he will never accept an independent Palestine coexisting side by side with Israel. His party, Likud, makes the point clear in its official manifesto.

“The Government of Israel will enable the Palestinians to manage their lives freely, within the framework of self-government. However, foreign affairs and defence, and matters which require coordination, will remain the responsibility of the State of Israel,” says Likud’s Party Platform.

Netanyahu, who has long headed Likud, clearly regards a future Palestinian state as an Israeli colony with limited “self-government”. Defence and foreign affairs will remain with Israel. To ensure its goal is spelled out unambiguously, the clause declares: “The government of Israel will oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.”

Netanyahu delayed as long as he could signing the peace deal, which he insists is temporary. He warns that Israel “reserves the right to resume the war”. For Israel, peace in the region is a poisoned chalice. War is Israel’s default option.

Peace carries the promise of economic prosperity to the whole region – from Gaza to the West Bank and further on to Lebanon. Israel loses its monopoly of prosperity in the region.

How long, Israelis wonder, before re-armed Hamas and Hezbollah pose an existential threat to Israel while an independent Palestine emerges from the rubble of Gaza?

WASHINGTON CONSENSUS?

Netanyahu’s best hope to avoid – or delay – these outcomes lies in Washington. While Trump is strongly pro-Israel, he is a pragmatist. He knows that an independent Palestine is a geopolitical inevitability. As a real estate developer, he also knows that reconstruction in Gaza represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

War in the Middle East has long benefited the US military-industrial complex (MIC). Without US weapons and intelligence, Israel would be untenable as an independent state. Netanyahu has tried to prolong the war in Gaza – sacrificing the interests of the families of Israeli hostages, many of whom have died in the 15-month captivity – even as he stands accused of corruption in the Supreme Court. The war delayed hearings in the case that have only recently begun.

Israel’s best hope of long-term security is to accept an independent Palestine, a rebuilt Gaza, withdrawal from the West Bank and establishment of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia which has made an independent Palestine a precondition to normalising diplomatic and commercial ties with Israel.

General elections in Israel have been postponed due to the Gaza war. While the attacks on Hezbollah, Iran and Syria have boosted Netanyahu’s popularity, a new opinion poll showed that if elections to Israel’s 120-seat parliament, the Knesset, were held today, Netanyahu’s Likud and its coalition partners would struggle to win a majority.

Trump may be happier dealing with Netanyahu’s post-election successor. His relationship with the Israeli prime minister has been distinctly cooler than former President Joe Biden enjoyed.

India is watching developments closely. If peace holds in the region, the ambitious sea-rail-road India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) can be a trade game-changer.

An independent Palestine may be the price Israel will have to pay to ensure its security in a post-Netanyahu era.

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